You are about to see a chart that is undeniable evidence that we have already entered a major economic slowdown. In the “real economy”, stuff is bought and sold and shipped around the country by trucks, railroads and planes. When more stuff is being bought and sold and shipped around the country, the “real economy” is growing, and when less stuff is being bought and sold and shipped around the country, the “real economy” is shrinking. I know that might sound really basic, but I want everyone to be on the same page as we proceed in this article. Just because stock prices are artificially high right now does not mean that the U.S. economy is in good shape. In fact, there was a stock rally at this exact time of the year in 2008 even though the underlying economic fundamentals were rapidly deteriorating. We all remember what happened later that year, so we should not exactly be rejoicing that precisely the same pattern that we witnessed in 2008 is happening again right in front of our eyes.
During the month of April, the Cass Transportation Index was down 4.9 percent on a year over year basis. What this means is that a lot less stuff was bought and sold and shipped around the country in April 2016 when compared to April 2015. T
he following comes from Wolf Richter…
Of course this was not just a one month fluke.
The reality is that we have now seen the Cass Shipping Index decline on a year over year basis for 14 consecutive months.
Dem aufmerksamen Beobachter dürfte in der letzten Woche die deutliche Bestätigung der Tatsache aufgefallen sein, dass eine neue Rezession eingesetzt hat.
Am vergangenen Freitag veröffentlichte die US-Regierung die schlechtesten Arbeitsmarktzahlen der letzten sechs Jahre.
Dies hat viele Menschen schockiert. Aber wenn man die Zahlen einmal genau betrachtet, entdeckt man rasch, dass die Lage noch weitaus schlimmer ist, als die meisten Analysten zugeben wollen.